000			02627cam a22003857 4500
001			w24932
003			NBER
005			20211020104436.0
006			m o d
007			cr cnu||||||||
008			210910s2018 mau fo 000 0 eng d
100	1		_aBordalo, Pedro.
245	1	0	_aOver-reaction in Macroeconomic Expectations / _cPedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, Andrei Shleifer.
260			_aCambridge, Mass. _bNational Bureau of Economic Research _c2018.
300			_a1 online resource: _billustrations (black and white);
490	1		_aNBER working paper series _vno. w24932
500			_aAugust 2018.
520	3		_aWe study the rationality of individual and consensus professional forecasts of macroeconomic and financial variables using the methodology of Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2015), which examines predictability of forecast errors from forecast revisions. We report two key findings: forecasters typically over-react to their individual news, while consensus forecasts under-react to average forecaster news. To reconcile these findings, we combine the diagnostic expectations model of belief formation from Bordalo, Gennaioli, and Shleifer (2018) with Woodford's (2003) noisy information model of belief dispersion. The forward looking nature of diagnostic expectations yields additional implications, which we also test and confirm. A structural estimation exercise indicates that our model captures important variation in the data, yielding a value for the belief distortion parameter similar to estimates obtained in other settings
530			_aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
538			_aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files.
538			_aMode of access: World Wide Web.
588	0		_aPrint version record
690		7	_aE03 - Behavioral Macroeconomics _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aE17 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aE32 - Business Fluctuations • Cycles _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aE37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
700	1		_aGennaioli, Nicola. _911246
700	1		_aMa, Yueran.
700	1		_aShleifer, Andrei. _920697
710	2		_aNational Bureau of Economic Research.
830		0	_aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) _vno. w24932.
856	4	0	_uhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w24932
856			_yAcceso en línea al DOI _uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w24932
942			_2ddc _cW-PAPER
999			_c323190 _d281752