000			02873cam a22003617 4500
001			w24776
003			NBER
005			20211020104506.0
006			m o d
007			cr cnu||||||||
008			210910s2018 mau fo 000 0 eng d
100	1		_aTanaka, Mari.
245	1	0	_aFirm Performance and Macro Forecast Accuracy / _cMari Tanaka, Nicholas Bloom, Joel M. David, Maiko Koga.
260			_aCambridge, Mass. _bNational Bureau of Economic Research _c2018.
300			_a1 online resource: _billustrations (black and white);
490	1		_aNBER working paper series _vno. w24776
500			_aJune 2018.
520	3		_aEver since Keynes' famous quote about animal spirits, there has been an interest in linking firms' expectations and actions. However, empirical evidence has been limited due to a lack of firm-level panel data on expectations and outcomes. In this paper, we build such a dataset by combining a unique survey of Japanese firms' GDP forecasts with company accounting data for 25 years for over 1,000 large Japanese firms. We find four main results. First, firms' GDP forecasts are positively associated with their employment, investment, and output growth in the subsequent year. Second, both optimistic and pessimistic forecast errors lower profitability. Third, while over-optimistic forecasts lower measured productivity, over-pessimistic forecasts do not tend to have an effect on productivity. Overall, these results are stronger for firms whose performance is more sensitive to the state of macroeconomy. We show that a simple model of firm input choice under uncertainty and costly adjustment can rationalize there results. Finally, larger and more cyclically sensitive firms make more accurate forecasts, presumably reflecting a higher return to accuracy for these firms. More productive, older, and bank-owned firms also make more accurate forecasts, suggesting that forecasting ability is also linked to management ability, experience, and governance. Collectively, our results highlight the importance of firms' forecasting ability for micro and macro performance.
530			_aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
538			_aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files.
538			_aMode of access: World Wide Web.
588	0		_aPrint version record
690		7	_aE0 - General _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aM0 - General _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
700	1		_aBloom, Nicholas. _96437
700	1		_aDavid, Joel M.
700	1		_aKoga, Maiko.
710	2		_aNational Bureau of Economic Research.
830		0	_aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) _vno. w24776.
856	4	0	_uhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w24776
856			_yAcceso en línea al DOI _uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w24776
942			_2ddc _cW-PAPER
999			_c323346 _d281908