000			03541cam a22003617 4500
001			w22665
003			NBER
005			20211020105137.0
006			m o d
007			cr cnu||||||||
008			210910s2016 mau fo 000 0 eng d
100	1		_aAbraham, Katharine G. _94429
245	1	4	_aThe Consequences of Long-Term Unemployment: _bEvidence from Linked Survey and Administrative Data / _cKatharine G. Abraham, John C. Haltiwanger, Kristin Sandusky, James Spletzer.
260			_aCambridge, Mass. _bNational Bureau of Economic Research _c2016.
300			_a1 online resource: _billustrations (black and white);
490	1		_aNBER working paper series _vno. w22665
500			_aSeptember 2016.
520	3		_aIt is well known that the long-term unemployed fare worse in the labor market than the short-term unemployed, but less clear why this is so. One potential explanation is that the long-term unemployed are "bad apples" who had poorer prospects from the outset of their spells (heterogeneity). Another is that their bad outcomes are a consequence of the extended unemployment they have experienced (state dependence). We use Current Population Survey (CPS) data on unemployed individuals linked to wage records for the same people to distinguish between these competing explanations. For each person in our sample, we have wage record data that cover the period from 20 quarters before to 11 quarters after the quarter in which the person is observed in the CPS. This gives us rich information about prior and subsequent work histories not available to previous researchers that we use to control for individual heterogeneity that might be affecting subsequent labor market outcomes. Even with these controls in place, we find that unemployment duration has a strongly negative effect on the likelihood of subsequent employment. This result is robust to efforts to account for differences in labor market circumstances that might affect job-finding success rates. The findings are inconsistent with the heterogeneity ("bad apple") explanation for why the long-term unemployed fare worse than the short-term unemployed and lend support to the state dependence explanation for the negative association between unemployment duration and subsequent employment rates. We also find that longer unemployment durations are associated with lower subsequent earnings, though this is mainly attributable to the long-term unemployed having a lower likelihood of subsequent employment rather than to their having lower earnings once a job is found.
530			_aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
538			_aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files.
538			_aMode of access: World Wide Web.
588	0		_aPrint version record
690		7	_aE24 - Employment • Unemployment • Wages • Intergenerational Income Distribution • Aggregate Human Capital • Aggregate Labor Productivity _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aJ64 - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
700	1		_aHaltiwanger, John C. _912289
700	1		_aSandusky, Kristin.
700	1		_aSpletzer, James.
710	2		_aNational Bureau of Economic Research.
830		0	_aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) _vno. w22665.
856	4	0	_uhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w22665
856			_yAcceso en línea al DOI _uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w22665
942			_2ddc _cW-PAPER
999			_c325457 _d284019