| 000 | 02373cam a22003617 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | w21921 | ||
| 003 | NBER | ||
| 005 | 20211020105356.0 | ||
| 006 | m o d | ||
| 007 | cr cnu|||||||| | ||
| 008 | 210910s2016 mau fo 000 0 eng d | ||
| 100 | 1 |
_aLazear, Edward P. _914981 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 |
_aOverconfidence and Occupational Choice / _cEdward P. Lazear. |
| 260 |
_aCambridge, Mass. _bNational Bureau of Economic Research _c2016. |
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| 300 |
_a1 online resource: _billustrations (black and white); |
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| 490 | 1 |
_aNBER working paper series _vno. w21921 |
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| 500 | _aJanuary 2016. | ||
| 520 | 3 | _aA statistical theory of overconfidence is proposed and applied to the issue of occupational choice. Individuals who can choose whether to engage in an activity or not must estimate their performance. The estimates have error and that error has positive expectation among those who engage in the activity. As a result, an unbiased ex ante estimate of performance in an occupatoin results in an ex post biased estimate of ability among those enter. The statistical theory of overconfidence provides a number of testable implications, most significant of which is that overconfidence should be more prevalent in occupations where estimates of ability are noisier. This and other implications are tested and found to hold using the Current Population Survey and Panel Study of Income Dynamics data. | |
| 530 | _aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers | ||
| 538 | _aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. | ||
| 538 | _aMode of access: World Wide Web. | ||
| 588 | 0 | _aPrint version record | |
| 690 | 7 |
_aD02 - Institutions: Design, Formation, Operations, and Impact _2Journal of Economic Literature class. |
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| 690 | 7 |
_aJ0 - General _2Journal of Economic Literature class. |
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| 690 | 7 |
_aM5 - Personnel Economics _2Journal of Economic Literature class. |
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| 690 | 7 |
_aM50 - General _2Journal of Economic Literature class. |
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| 690 | 7 |
_aM51 - Firm Employment Decisions • Promotions _2Journal of Economic Literature class. |
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| 710 | 2 | _aNational Bureau of Economic Research. | |
| 830 | 0 |
_aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) _vno. w21921. |
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| 856 | 4 | 0 | _uhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w21921 |
| 856 |
_yAcceso en línea al DOI _uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w21921 |
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_2ddc _cW-PAPER |
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| 999 |
_c326201 _d284763 |
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