000			02760cam a22003857 4500
001			w21459
003			NBER
005			20211020105528.0
006			m o d
007			cr cnu||||||||
008			210910s2015 mau fo 000 0 eng d
100	1		_aDehejia, Rajeev.
245	1	0	_aFrom Local to Global: _bExternal Validity in a Fertility Natural Experiment / _cRajeev Dehejia, Cristian Pop-Eleches, Cyrus Samii.
260			_aCambridge, Mass. _bNational Bureau of Economic Research _c2015.
300			_a1 online resource: _billustrations (black and white);
490	1		_aNBER working paper series _vno. w21459
500			_aAugust 2015.
520	3		_aWe study issues related to external validity for treatment effects using over 100 replications of the Angrist and Evans (1998) natural experiment on the effects of sibling sex composition on fertility and labor supply. The replications are based on census data from around the world going back to 1960. We decompose sources of error in predicting treatment effects in external contexts in terms of macro and micro sources of variation. In our empirical setting, we find that macro covariates dominate over micro covariates for reducing errors in predicting treatments, an issue that past studies of external validity have been unable to evaluate. We develop methods for two applications to evidence-based decision-making, including determining where to locate an experiment and whether policy-makers should commission new experiments or rely on an existing evidence base for making a policy decision.
530			_aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
538			_aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files.
538			_aMode of access: World Wide Web.
588	0		_aPrint version record
690		7	_aC18 - Methodological Issues: General _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aC31 - Cross-Sectional Models • Spatial Models • Treatment Effect Models • Quantile Regressions • Social Interaction Models _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aC9 - Design of Experiments _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aF63 - Economic Development _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aJ13 - Fertility • Family Planning • Child Care • Children • Youth _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
700	1		_aPop-Eleches, Cristian.
700	1		_aSamii, Cyrus.
710	2		_aNational Bureau of Economic Research.
830		0	_aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) _vno. w21459.
856	4	0	_uhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w21459
856			_yAcceso en línea al DOI _uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w21459
942			_2ddc _cW-PAPER
999			_c326663 _d285225