000			02634cam a22003617 4500
001			w17651
003			NBER
005			20211020110718.0
006			m o d
007			cr cnu||||||||
008			210910s2011 mau fo 000 0 eng d
100	1		_aBeaudry, Paul. _95863
245	1	0	_aDo Mood Swings Drive Business Cycles and is it Rational? / _cPaul Beaudry, Deokwoo Nam, Jian Wang.
260			_aCambridge, Mass. _bNational Bureau of Economic Research _c2011.
300			_a1 online resource: _billustrations (black and white);
490	1		_aNBER working paper series _vno. w17651
500			_aDecember 2011.
520	3		_aThis paper provides new evidence in support of the idea that bouts of optimism and pessimism drive much of US business cycles. In particular, we begin by using sign-restriction based identification schemes to isolate innovations in optimism or pessimism and we document the extent to which such episodes explain macroeconomic fluctuations. We then examine the link between these identified mood shocks and subsequent developments in fundamentals using alternative identification schemes (i.e., variants of the maximum forecast error variance approach). We find that there is a very close link between the two, suggesting that agents' feelings of optimism and pessimism are at least partially rational as total factor productivity (TFP) is observed to rise 8-10 quarters after an initial bout of optimism. While this later finding is consistent with some previous findings in the news shock literature, we cannot rule out that such episodes reflect self-fulfilling beliefs. Overall, we argue that mood swings account for over 50% of business cycle fluctuations in hours and output.
530			_aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
538			_aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files.
538			_aMode of access: World Wide Web.
588	0		_aPrint version record
690		7	_aE1 - General Aggregative Models _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aE2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aE32 - Business Fluctuations • Cycles _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
700	1		_aNam, Deokwoo.
700	1		_aWang, Jian.
710	2		_aNational Bureau of Economic Research.
830		0	_aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) _vno. w17651.
856	4	0	_uhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w17651
856			_yAcceso en línea al DOI _uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w17651
942			_2ddc _cW-PAPER
999			_c330472 _d289034