000			02688cam a22003857 4500
001			w17377
003			NBER
005			20211020110805.0
006			m o d
007			cr cnu||||||||
008			210910s2011 mau fo 000 0 eng d
100	1		_aAshraf, Quamrul H. _931141
245	1	4	_aThe Effect of Interventions to Reduce Fertility on Economic Growth / _cQuamrul H. Ashraf, David N. Weil, Joshua Wilde.
260			_aCambridge, Mass. _bNational Bureau of Economic Research _c2011.
300			_a1 online resource: _billustrations (black and white);
490	1		_aNBER working paper series _vno. w17377
500			_aAugust 2011.
520	3		_aWe assess quantitatively the effect of exogenous reductions in fertility on output per capita. Our simulation model allows for effects that run through schooling, the size and age structure of the population, capital accumulation, parental time input into child-rearing, and crowding of fixed natural resources. The model is parameterized using a combination of microeconomic estimates, data on demographics and natural resource income in developing countries, and standard components of quantitative macroeconomic theory. We apply the model to examine the effect of a change in fertility from the UN medium-variant to the UN low-variant projection, using Nigerian vital rates as a baseline. For a base case set of parameters, we find that such a change would raise output per capita by 5.6 percent at a horizon of 20 years, and by 11.9 percent at a horizon of 50 years.
530			_aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
538			_aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files.
538			_aMode of access: World Wide Web.
588	0		_aPrint version record
690		7	_aE17 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aJ11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aJ13 - Fertility • Family Planning • Child Care • Children • Youth _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aJ18 - Public Policy _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aO11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
700	1		_aWeil, David N. _922710
700	1		_aWilde, Joshua.
710	2		_aNational Bureau of Economic Research.
830		0	_aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) _vno. w17377.
856	4	0	_uhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w17377
856			_yAcceso en línea al DOI _uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w17377
942			_2ddc _cW-PAPER
999			_c330746 _d289308