000			02476cam a22003737 4500
001			w16541
003			NBER
005			20211020111032.0
006			m o d
007			cr cnu||||||||
008			210910s2010 mau fo 000 0 eng d
100	1		_aKellogg, Ryan. _933300
245	1	4	_aThe Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: _bEvidence from Texas Oil Drilling / _cRyan Kellogg.
260			_aCambridge, Mass. _bNational Bureau of Economic Research _c2010.
300			_a1 online resource: _billustrations (black and white);
490	1		_aNBER working paper series _vno. w16541
500			_aNovember 2010.
520	3		_aDespite widespread application of real options theory in the literature, the extent to which firms actually delay irreversible investments following an increase in the uncertainty of their environment is not empirically well-known. This paper estimates firms' responsiveness to changes in uncertainty using detailed data on oil well drilling in Texas and expectations of future oil price volatility derived from the NYMEX futures options market. Using a dynamic model of firms' investment problem, I find that oil companies respond to changes in expected price volatility by adjusting their drilling activity by a magnitude consistent with the optimal response prescribed by theory.
530			_aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
538			_aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files.
538			_aMode of access: World Wide Web.
588	0		_aPrint version record
690		7	_aD21 - Firm Behavior: Theory _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aD81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aE22 - Investment • Capital • Intangible Capital • Capacity _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aL21 - Business Objectives of the Firm _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aL71 - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aQ41 - Demand and Supply • Prices _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
710	2		_aNational Bureau of Economic Research.
830		0	_aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) _vno. w16541.
856	4	0	_uhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w16541
856			_yAcceso en línea al DOI _uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w16541
942			_2ddc _cW-PAPER
999			_c331581 _d290143