000			02537cam a22003617 4500
001			w14862
003			NBER
005			20211020111530.0
006			m o d
007			cr cnu||||||||
008			210910s2009 mau fo 000 0 eng d
100	1		_aGoodfriend, Marvin. _911655
245	1	4	_aThe Great Inflation Drift / _cMarvin Goodfriend, Robert G. King.
260			_aCambridge, Mass. _bNational Bureau of Economic Research _c2009.
300			_a1 online resource: _billustrations (black and white);
490	1		_aNBER working paper series _vno. w14862
500			_aApril 2009.
520	3		_aA standard statistical perspective on the U.S. Great Inflation is that it involves an increase in the stochastic trend rate of inflation, defined as the long-term forecast of inflation at each point in time. That perspective receives support from two sources: the behavior of long-term interest rates which are generally supposed to contain private sector forecasts, and statistical studies of U.S. inflation dynamics. We show that a textbook macroeconomic model delivers such a stochastic inflation trend, when there are shifts in the growth rate of capacity output, under two behavioral hypotheses about the central bank: (i) that it seeks to maintain output at capacity; and (ii) that it seeks to maintain continuity of the short-term interest rate. The theory then identifies major upswings in trend inflation with unexpectedly slow growth of capacity output. We interpret the rise of inflation in the U.S. from the perspective of this simple macroeconomic framework.
530			_aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
538			_aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files.
538			_aMode of access: World Wide Web.
588	0		_aPrint version record
690		7	_aE3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aE43 - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aE52 - Monetary Policy _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aE58 - Central Banks and Their Policies _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
700	1		_aKing, Robert G.
710	2		_aNational Bureau of Economic Research.
830		0	_aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) _vno. w14862.
856	4	0	_uhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w14862
856			_yAcceso en línea al DOI _uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w14862
942			_2ddc _cW-PAPER
999			_c333260 _d291822