000			03310cam a22003857 4500
001			w13736
003			NBER
005			20211020111851.0
006			m o d
007			cr cnu||||||||
008			210910s2008 mau fo 000 0 eng d
100	1		_aBoivin, Jean. _96509
245	1	0	_aGlobal Forces and Monetary Policy Effectiveness / _cJean Boivin, Marc Giannoni.
260			_aCambridge, Mass. _bNational Bureau of Economic Research _c2008.
300			_a1 online resource: _billustrations (black and white);
490	1		_aNBER working paper series _vno. w13736
500			_aJanuary 2008.
520	3		_aIn this paper, we quantify the changes in the relationship between international forces and many key US macroeconomic variables over the 1984-2005 period, and analyze changes in the monetary policy transmission mechanism. We do so by estimating a Factor-Augmented VAR on a large set of US and international data series. We find that the role of international factors in explaining US variables has been changing over the 1984-2005 period. However, while some US series have become more correlated with global factors, there is little evidence suggesting that these factors have become systematically more important. We don't find strong evidence of a change in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy due to global forces. Taking our point estimates literally, global forces do not seem to have played an important role in the US monetary transmission mechanism between 1984 and 1999. In addition, since the year 2000, the initial response of the US economy following a monetary policy shock --- the first 6 to 8 quarters --- is essentially the same as the one that has been observed in the 1984-1999 period. However, point estimates suggest that the growing importance of global forces might have contributed to reducing some of the persistence in the responses, two or more years after the shocks. Overall, we conclude that if global forces have had an effect on the monetary transmission mechanism, this is a recent phenomenon.
530			_aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
538			_aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files.
538			_aMode of access: World Wide Web.
588	0		_aPrint version record
690		7	_aC32 - Time-Series Models • Dynamic Quantile Regressions • Dynamic Treatment Effect Models • Diffusion Processes • State Space Models _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aC53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods • Simulation Methods _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aE31 - Price Level • Inflation • Deflation _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aE32 - Business Fluctuations • Cycles _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aE40 - General _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aF41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
700	1		_aGiannoni, Marc.
710	2		_aNational Bureau of Economic Research.
830		0	_aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) _vno. w13736.
856	4	0	_uhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w13736
856			_yAcceso en línea al DOI _uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w13736
942			_2ddc _cW-PAPER
999			_c334387 _d292949