000			03198cam a22003737 4500
001			w13084
003			NBER
005			20211020112044.0
006			m o d
007			cr cnu||||||||
008			210910s2007 mau fo 000 0 eng d
100	1		_aAizenman, Joshua. _94613
245	1	0	_aTakeoffs / _cJoshua Aizenman, Mark Spiegel.
260			_aCambridge, Mass. _bNational Bureau of Economic Research _c2007.
300			_a1 online resource: _billustrations (black and white);
490	1		_aNBER working paper series _vno. w13084
500			_aMay 2007.
520	3		_aThis paper identifies factors associated with takeoff -- a sustained period of high growth following a period of stagnation. We examine a panel of 241 "stagnation episodes" from 146 countries, 54 % of these episodes are followed by takeoffs. Countries that experience takeoffs average 2.3% annual growth following their stagnation episodes, while those that do not average 0% growth; 46% of the takeoffs are "sustained," i.e. lasting 8 years or longer. Using probit estimation, we find that de jure trade openness is positively and significantly associated with takeoffs. A one standard deviation increase in de jure trade openness is associated with a 55% increase in the probability of a takeoff in our default specification. We also find evidence that capital account openness encourages takeoff responses, although this channel is less robust. Measures of de facto trade openness, as well as a variety of other potential conditioning variables, are found to be poor predictors of takeoffs. We also examine the determinants of nations achieving sustained takeoffs. While we fail to find a significant role for openness in determining whether or not takeoffs are sustained, we do find a role for output composition: Takeoffs in countries with more commodity-intensive output bundles are less likely to be sustained, while takeoffs in countries that are more service-intensive are more likely to be sustained. This suggests that adverse terms of trade shocks prevalent among commodity exports may play a role in ending long-term high growth episodes.
530			_aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
538			_aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files.
538			_aMode of access: World Wide Web.
588	0		_aPrint version record
690		7	_aF13 - Trade Policy • International Trade Organizations _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aF15 - Economic Integration _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aF36 - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aO11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aO57 - Comparative Studies of Countries _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
700	1		_aSpiegel, Mark.
710	2		_aNational Bureau of Economic Research.
830		0	_aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) _vno. w13084.
856	4	0	_uhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w13084
856			_yAcceso en línea al DOI _uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w13084
942			_2ddc _cW-PAPER
999			_c335046 _d293608