000			02128cam a22003017 4500
001			w12541
003			NBER
005			20211020112217.0
006			m o d
007			cr cnu||||||||
008			210910s2006 mau fo 000 0 eng d
100	1		_aFreeman, Richard B.
245	1	0	_aIs A Great Labor Shortage Coming? Replacement Demand in the Global Economy / _cRichard B. Freeman.
260			_aCambridge, Mass. _bNational Bureau of Economic Research _c2006.
300			_a1 online resource: _billustrations (black and white);
490	1		_aNBER working paper series _vno. w12541
500			_aSeptember 2006.
520	3		_aThis paper assesses the claim the the US faces an impending labor shortage due to the impending retirement of baby boomers and slow growth of the US work force, and that the country should orient labor market and educational policies to alleviate this prospective shortage. I find that this analysis is flawed, by making growth of GDP the target of economic policy and by paying inadequate attention to the huge supply of qualified low wage workers in the global economy. My analysis shows that the projections of future demands for skills lack the reliability to guide policies on skill development, and that contrary to the assumption implicit in the shortage analyses, demographic changes have not historically been consistently associated with changes in labor market conditions. I argue that if there is to be a shortage, the country should allow the competitive market to raise labor compensation rather than to adopt policies to keep labor costs low.
530			_aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
538			_aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files.
538			_aMode of access: World Wide Web.
588	0		_aPrint version record
710	2		_aNational Bureau of Economic Research.
830		0	_aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) _vno. w12541.
856	4	0	_uhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w12541
856			_yAcceso en línea al DOI _uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w12541
942			_2ddc _cW-PAPER
999			_c335600 _d294162