000			02991cam a22003377 4500
001			w10003
003			NBER
005			20211020112924.0
006			m o d
007			cr cnu||||||||
008			210910s2003 mau fo 000 0 eng d
100	1		_aComin, Diego. _98308
245	1	0	_aMedium Term Business Cycles / _cDiego Comin, Mark Gertler.
260			_aCambridge, Mass. _bNational Bureau of Economic Research _c2003.
300			_a1 online resource: _billustrations (black and white);
490	1		_aNBER working paper series _vno. w10003
500			_aSeptember 2003.
520	3		_aOver the postwar, the U.S., Europe and Japan have experienced what may be thought of as medium frequency oscillations between persistent periods of robust growth and persistent periods of relative stagnation. These medium frequency movements, further, appear to bear some relation to the high frequency volatility of output. That is, periods of stagnation are often associated with significant recessions, while persistent booms typically are either free of recessions or are interrupted only by very modest downturns. In this paper we explore the idea of medium term cycles, which we define as reflecting the sum of the high and medium frequency variation in the data. We develop a methodology for identifying these kinds of fluctuations and then show that a number of important macroeconomic time series exhibit significant medium term cycles. The cycles feature strong procyclical movements in both disembodied and embodied technological change, research & development, and the efficiency of resource utilization. We then develop a model to explain the medium term cycle that features both disembodied and embodied endogenous technological change, along with countercyclical markups and variable factor utilization. The model is able to generate medium term fluctuations in output, technological change, and resource utilization that resemble the data, with a non-technological shock as the exogenous disturbance. In particular the model offers a unified approach to explaining both high and medium frequency variation in aggregate business activity.
530			_aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
538			_aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files.
538			_aMode of access: World Wide Web.
588	0		_aPrint version record
690		7	_aE3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aO3 - Innovation • Research and Development • Technological Change • Intellectual Property Rights _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
700	1		_aGertler, Mark. _911300
710	2		_aNational Bureau of Economic Research.
830		0	_aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) _vno. w10003.
856	4	0	_uhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w10003
856			_yAcceso en línea al DOI _uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w10003
942			_2ddc _cW-PAPER
999			_c338186 _d296748