000			03081cam a22003257 4500
001			t0238
003			NBER
005			20211020113722.0
006			m o d
007			cr cnu||||||||
008			210910s1999 mau fo 000 0 eng d
100	1		_aHotz, V. Joseph. _913070
245	1	0	_aPredicting the Efficacy of Future Training Programs Using Past Experiences / _cV. Joseph Hotz, Guido W. Imbens, Julie H. Mortimer.
260			_aCambridge, Mass. _bNational Bureau of Economic Research _c1999.
300			_a1 online resource: _billustrations (black and white);
490	1		_aNBER technical working paper series _vno. t0238
500			_aMay 1999.
520	3		_aWe investigate the problem of predicting the average effect of a new training program using experiences with previous implementations. There are two principal complications in doing so. First, the population in which the new program will be implemented may differ from the population in which the old program was implemented. Second, the two programs may differ in the mix of their components. With sufficient detail on characteristics of the two populations and sufficient overlap in their distributions, one may be able to adjust for differences due to the first complication. Dealing with the second difficulty requires data on the exact treatments the individuals received. However even in the presence of differences in the mix of components across training programs comparisons of controls in both populations who were excluded from participating in any of the programs should not be affected. To investigate the empirical importance of these issues, we compare four job training pro-grams implemented in the mid-eighties in different parts of the U.S. We find that adjusting for pre-training earnings and individual characteristics removes most of the differences between control units, but that even after such adjustments, post-training earnings for trainees are not comparable. We surmise that differences in treatment components across training programs are the likely cause, and that more details on the specific services provided by these programs are necessary to predict the effect of future programs. We also conclude that effect heterogeneity, it is essential, even in experimental evaluations of training programs record pre-training earnings and individual characteristics in order to render the extrapolation of the results to different locations more credible.
530			_aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
538			_aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files.
538			_aMode of access: World Wide Web.
588	0		_aPrint version record
700	1		_aImbens, Guido W. _913314
700	1		_aMortimer, Julie H.
710	2		_aNational Bureau of Economic Research.
830		0	_aTechnical Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) _vno. t0238.
856	4	0	_uhttps://www.nber.org/papers/t0238
856			_yAcceso en línea al DOI _uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/t0238
942			_2ddc _cW-PAPER
999			_c341170 _d299732