000			02983cam a22003257 4500
001			w0608
003			NBER
005			20211020115432.0
006			m o d
007			cr cnu||||||||
008			210910s1980 mau fo 000 0 eng d
100	1		_aZarnowitz, Victor. _923249
245	1	0	_aOn Functions, Quality, and Timeliness of Economic Information / _cVictor Zarnowitz.
260			_aCambridge, Mass. _bNational Bureau of Economic Research _c1980.
300			_a1 online resource: _billustrations (black and white);
490	1		_aNBER working paper series _vno. w0608
500			_aDecember 1980.
520	3		_aThe flow of production and use of economic information consists of the collection and processing of primary data, the reporting of the resulting measures, and the transformation of the latter into signals or messages that presumably aid knowledge or decision-making. Each stage contributes to the return and costs, quality and errors of the information. The processes involved on the micro and macro levels show important similarities and interact ions. The uncertainty about economic information increases with the probability of error in the underlying data and their processing and interpretation. Many errors cannot be promptly detected and eliminated but can be gradually reduced over time, as attested by the revisions in economic statistics. This paper presents substantial evidence on the accuracy of provisional estimates of quarterly and monthly changes in eighteen important variables. Measures of several aspects of data quality and of average lags of data release and signal detection are provided for a collection of 110 widely used economic indicators. These materials help identify the location of the more serious measurement errors by variable and period, and they show that informational lags of five and more months are frequent. The errors and lags of information may lead to apparently "systematic" but not readily detectable and removable errors in expectations. This is likely to happen, in particular, in times of great surprises and shocks when measurement of short-term changes in the economy is most difficult and current signals are often misread. Some illustrations are drawn from the events of 1970-75.
530			_aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
538			_aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files.
538			_aMode of access: World Wide Web.
588	0		_aPrint version record
690		7	_aE - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aC - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
710	2		_aNational Bureau of Economic Research.
830		0	_aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) _vno. w0608.
856	4	0	_uhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w0608
856			_yAcceso en línea al DOI _uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w0608
942			_2ddc _cW-PAPER
999			_c347994 _d306556