000			03114cam a22003497 4500
001			w0590
003			NBER
005			20211020115435.0
006			m o d
007			cr cnu||||||||
008			210910s1980 mau fo 000 0 eng d
100	1		_aDornbusch, Rudiger.
245	1	2	_aA Model of the Black Market for Dollars / _cRudiger Dornbusch, Daniel Valente Dantas, Clarice Pechman, Roberto de Rezende Rocha, Demetrio Simoes.
260			_aCambridge, Mass. _bNational Bureau of Economic Research _c1980.
300			_a1 online resource: _billustrations (black and white);
490	1		_aNBER working paper series _vno. w0590
500			_aDecember 1980.
520	3		_aThe paper develops an analytical framework to discuss the determinants of the premium in the black market for dollars in Brazil. While the specific details of the model were chosen with the Brazilian case in mind, the structure of the model is quite general and suitable for application to black markets for currency elsewhere. The building blocks of the model are three. A capital asset pricing approach is used to derive an asset demand for dollars, or equivalently a real yield premium in market equilibrium. The current account of the black market is specified in terms of the sources and uses in the flow market for dollars, mainly smuggling proceeds and flows associated with tourism. The model is closed by a model of official exchange rate policy and the assumption of rational expectations. In comparative static applications the model has the properties of current account oriented models of the exchange rate. Unanticipated current account improvements due, for example, to increased export taxes that promote smuggling, lead to a decline in the premium. Asset market disturbances, such as increased inflation uncertainty or increased variability in the official real exchange rate policy are shown to have ambiguous effects on the premium. In applying the distinction between anticipated and unanticipated disturbances it is shown that the current expectation of a future maxi-devaluation leads to an immediate rise in the premium, with a subsequent decline when the maxi actually takes place. The paper concludes with a discussion of seasonal patterns in the premium. It is shown-that for "always" anticipated disturbances there is no jump in the premium, but a gradual adjustment that precedes the actual seasonal in the current account.
530			_aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
538			_aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files.
538			_aMode of access: World Wide Web.
588	0		_aPrint version record
700	1		_aDantas, Daniel Valente.
700	1		_aPechman, Clarice.
700	1		_aRocha, Roberto de Rezende.
700	1		_aSimoes, Demetrio.
710	2		_aNational Bureau of Economic Research.
830		0	_aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) _vno. w0590.
856	4	0	_uhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w0590
856			_yAcceso en línea al DOI _uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w0590
942			_2ddc _cW-PAPER
999			_c348012 _d306574