000			02843cam a22003737 4500
001			w29140
003			NBER
005			20211020103050.0
006			m o d
007			cr cnu||||||||
008			210910s2021 mau fo 000 0 eng d
100	1		_aChodorow-Reich, Gabriel.
245	1	4	_aThe 2000s Housing Cycle With 2020 Hindsight: _bA Neo-Kindlebergerian View / _cGabriel Chodorow-Reich, Adam M. Guren, Timothy J. McQuade.
260			_aCambridge, Mass. _bNational Bureau of Economic Research _c2021.
300			_a1 online resource: _billustrations (black and white);
490	1		_aNBER working paper series _vno. w29140
500			_aAugust 2021.
520	3		_aWith "2020 hindsight," the 2000s housing cycle is not a boom-bust but rather a boom- bust-rebound at both the national level and across cities. We argue this pattern reflects a larger role for fundamentally-rooted explanations than previously thought. We construct a city-level long-run fundamental using a spatial equilibrium regression framework in which house prices are determined by local income, amenities, and supply. The fundamental predicts not only 1997-2019 price and rent growth but also the amplitude of the boom-bust-rebound and foreclosures. This evidence motivates our neo-Kindlebergerian model, in which an improvement in fundamentals triggers a boom-bust-rebound. Agents learn about the fundamentals by observing "dividends" but become over-optimistic due to diagnostic expectations. A bust ensues when over-optimistic beliefs start to correct, exacerbated by a price-foreclosure spiral that drives prices below their long-run level. The rebound follows as prices converge to a path commensurate with higher fundamental growth. The estimated model explains the boom-bust-rebound with a single fundamental shock and accounts quantitatively for cross-city patterns in the dynamics of prices and foreclosures.
530			_aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
538			_aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files.
538			_aMode of access: World Wide Web.
588	0		_aPrint version record
690		7	_aE32 - Business Fluctuations • Cycles _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aG01 - Financial Crises _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aG4 - Behavioral Finance _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aR31 - Housing Supply and Markets _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
700	1		_aGuren, Adam M.
700	1		_aMcQuade, Timothy J.
710	2		_aNational Bureau of Economic Research.
830		0	_aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) _vno. w29140.
856	4	0	_uhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w29140
856			_yAcceso en línea al DOI _uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w29140
942			_2ddc _cW-PAPER
999			_c388410 _d346972