| 000 | 03141cam a22004937a 4500 | ||
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| 001 | w31949 | ||
| 003 | NBER | ||
| 005 | 20240125162141.0 | ||
| 006 | m o d | ||
| 007 | cr cnu|||||||| | ||
| 008 | 240124s2023 mau fo 000 0 eng d | ||
| 040 |
_aMaCbNBER _beng _cMaCbNBER |
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| 100 | 1 | _aObstfeld, Maurice. | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 |
_aNatural and Neutral Real Interest Rates: _bPast and Future / _cMaurice Obstfeld. |
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_aCambridge, Mass. _bNational Bureau of Economic Research _c2023. |
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_a1 online resource: _billustrations (black and white); |
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| 490 | 1 |
_aNBER working paper series _vno. w31949 |
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| 500 | _aDecember 2023. | ||
| 520 | 3 | _aThis paper surveys the decline in real interest rates in advanced and emerging economies over the past several decades, linking that process to a range of global factors that have operated with different force in different periods. The paper argues that estimates of long-run equilibrium real rates (r̄) may not always furnish an accurate guide to the rate appropriate for short-term monetary policy (r*). It argues further that effective monetary should consider not only equilibrium in the market for domestic goods, but also the current account balance, financial conditions (including capital flows), and imperfect policy credibility. Equilibrium long-term real interest rates have risen recently according to market indicators. However, the main underlying factors that have pushed real interest rates down since the 1980s and 1990s - notably demographic shifts, lower productivity growth, corporate market power, and safe asset demand relative to supply - do not appear poised to reverse strongly enough to drive a big and durable rise in global real interest rates over the coming years. Low equilibrium interest rates may well continue periodically to bedevil monetary policy and financial stability. | |
| 530 | _aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers | ||
| 538 | _aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. | ||
| 538 | _aMode of access: World Wide Web. | ||
| 588 | 0 | _aPrint version record | |
| 690 | 7 |
_aInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects _2jelc |
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| 650 | 7 |
_aInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects _2jelc |
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_aE43 _2jelc |
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_aFinancial Markets and the Macroeconomy _2jelc |
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| 650 | 7 |
_aFinancial Markets and the Macroeconomy _2jelc |
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_aE44 _2jelc |
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| 690 | 7 |
_aMonetary Policy _2jelc |
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| 650 | 7 |
_aMonetary Policy _2jelc |
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_aE52 _2jelc |
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| 690 | 7 |
_aFinancial Aspects of Economic Integration _2jelc |
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| 650 | 7 |
_aFinancial Aspects of Economic Integration _2jelc |
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| 084 |
_aF36 _2jelc |
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| 690 | 7 |
_aGeneral, International, or Comparative _2jelc |
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| 650 | 7 |
_aGeneral, International, or Comparative _2jelc |
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_aN10 _2jelc |
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| 710 | 2 | _aNational Bureau of Economic Research. | |
| 830 | 0 |
_aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) _vno. w31949. |
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| 856 | 4 | 0 | _uhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w31949 |
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_yAcceso en línea al DOI _uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w31949 |
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_2ddc _cW-PAPER |
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_c392089 _d350651 |
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