Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for 25 Currencies / Menzie Chinn, Jeffrey Frankel.

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Chinn, Menzie

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Material type: Text

TextSeries: Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) ; no. w3807.Publication details: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 1991.Description: 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white)Online resources:

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Abstract: We investigate the properties of exchange rate forecasts with a data set encompassing a broad cross section of currencies. The key finding is that expectations appear to be biased in our sample. This result is robust to the possibility of random measurement error in the survey measures. Investors would be better off placing less weight on their forecasts or the forward rate, and more on the current spot rate.

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Item type	Home library	Collection	Call number	Status	Date due	Barcode	Item holds
Working Paper	Biblioteca Digital	Colección NBER	nber w3807 (Browse shelf(Opens below))	Not For Loan

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Previous	nber w3804 The Nonequivalence of High School Equivalents /	nber w3805 International Economic Transactions: Issues in Measurement and Empirical Research /	nber w3806 Exchange Rate Expectations and the Risk Premium: Tests For a Cross- Section of 17 Currencies /	nber w3807 Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for 25 Currencies /	nber w3808 The Effects of Product Market Competition on Collective Bargaining Agreements: The Case of Foreign Competition in Canada /	nber w3809 Empirical Evidence on European Dual Exchange Rates and Its Relevance For Latin America /	nber w3810 Short and Long Run Externalities /	Next

August 1991.

We investigate the properties of exchange rate forecasts with a data set encompassing a broad cross section of currencies. The key finding is that expectations appear to be biased in our sample. This result is robust to the possibility of random measurement error in the survey measures. Investors would be better off placing less weight on their forecasts or the forward rate, and more on the current spot rate.